4 Predictors of Divorce and What to Do About Them

Marriage isn’t always easy, and all relationships have ups and downs. According to relationship experts, there are certain signs to watch for that serve as important predictors of divorce.

John and Julie Gottman are psychologists, relationship experts, and the founders of the Gottman Institute. Based on their years of extensive research, they have identified four primary predictors of divorce. They have termed these four main predictors the “Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse,” and they are criticism, contempt, defensiveness, and stonewalling.

Criticism

Some criticism is unavoidable in a relationship, but it becomes unhealthy when you do it in a way that implies something is inherently wrong with your partner. You may also be attacking your partner’s personality or character.

The intent is to win the argument or prove your spouse wrong. For instance, saying, “you always…,” “you never…,” or “you’re the type of person who …” or “why are you so …” will make the spouse feel attacked and is likely to elicit a defensive response. 

These harmful patterns cause you both to not feel heard. You both may start to feel bad about yourselves when you are around each other.

Contempt

Contempt is perhaps the most serious of the four predictors of divorce. It concerns any statement or behavior, verbal or nonverbal, that asserts superiority to your partner. 

Examples of such behaviors include:

• Mocking your partner
• Name-calling
• Eye-rolling
• Showing hostility
• Insensitive joking
• Hurtful sarcasm
• Sneering in disgust

Contempt attacks your spouse’s sense of self. It is also intended to put down or emotionally abuse or manipulate them.

Contempt doesn’t just hurt your relationship; it also takes a toll on your health. Research has also found that experiencing feelings of contempt can lead to increased illness and worse well-being.

Defensiveness

Defensiveness arises from a perceived attack with your own counter-complaint. It is another way to act like a victim or not to take responsibility for your mistakes. Such behaviors include making excuses or saying things like, “It’s not my fault.”

It can also involve cross-complaining. This is when you match your partner’s complaint or criticism with one of your own. You then ignore what your partner said.

Other defensive behaviors are “yes-butting” or gaslighting, where you deny your partner’s reality. It can also involve simply repeating yourself without really paying attention to what your spouse is saying.

You do not have to be perfect. Consciously communicate by speaking honestly and listening well. Don’t forget to validate your partner by letting them know you get what they are feeling.

Stonewalling

Complete withdrawal from communication (and essentially the relationship) as a strategy to avoid conflict is called stonewalling. It may take the form of physically leaving or completely shutting down. Stonewalling might be giving the “silent treatment,” monosyllabic mutterings, changing the subject, or storming out.

The antidote to stonewalling is to learn to identify the signs that you or your partner is starting to feel emotionally overwhelmed. It’s a good idea to verbalize that you feel overwhelmed. You can both agree to take a break and that the conversation will resume when you are both calmer.

How to Deal With Predictors of Divorce

All of these behaviors tend to affect relationships at some point or another. On their own, one issue is unlikely to derail your marriage. When you have a combination of these predictors that continue to undermine your relationship, it may be time to talk to a couples therapist.

An unhealthy or toxic relationship can seriously harm your health and well-being, so it is important to take steps to address the problem. 

The Gottoman’s research suggests that each of the four predictors of divorce can be dealth with in the following ways.

• Criticism: The Gottman Institute suggests you can resolve arguments and conflicts by softening how you begin your discussions. Rather than launching into a complaint or criticism, start the debate gently. Research has found that observing the first three minutes of a conflict discussion accurately predicts whether a couple will eventually divorce.
• Contempt: The Gottmans suggest that cultivating an appreciation for your partner’s positive qualities can help reduce contemptuous feelings and behaviors. Rather than focusing on the things that irritate you, try reminding yourself about the characteristics that you are grateful for.
• Defensiveness: If you feel defensive, focus on taking responsibility instead of avoiding blame. 
• Stonewalling: Since this behavior is often rooted in trying to avoid anxiety or stress, finding ways to self-soothe can be beneficial. Grounding activities, visualization, deep breathing, and thinking kind thoughts are a few ways to soothe feelings of anxiety that might arise.

There are ways to better control these behaviors in your relationship. After an argument, claim responsibility for your piece in the escalation. What can you learn from it and what can you do about it?

De-Escalate

There are many things you can do to help reduce tension or de-escalate an argument. For instance, apologize, express your understanding, or demonstrate your concern. There is no good reason to push buttons or purposely escalate the argument.

Virtually all negative interactions with your partner are really a self-perpetuating cycle that, thankfully, you can exit from. When one of you gets triggered, the other reacts, there is a reaction to the reaction, and so on and so forth.

Reflect

Slow things down and self-reflect by figuring out what you might actually be feeling underneath. For instance, are you really hurt when you yell in anger? You need to get comfortable expressing that deeper part of yourself.

All of us have a lot to learn and to benefit from the Gottmans’ research. But, if you still find the “Four Horsemen” are ruining your relationship, it’s time to seek out a skilled marriage therapist.